That weak labor data pushed the probability of a cut above 90%, knocking the dollar lower and keeping Treasury yields pinned, both supportive for silver. New U.S. tariff measures ranging from 10% to 100% across multiple trading partners added a safe-haven bid, while President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board reinforced the perception of a dovish tilt ahead.
China’s factory slowdown remained the key headwind, with PMI readings confirming a stagnant manufacturing sector. This industrial drag kept silver from fully matching gold’s monetary-driven rally, underscoring the split personality of a metal tied to both safe-haven and industrial demand.
Jobs Shock Set the Stage for CPI Showdown
The payrolls miss lit the fuse for a dovish Fed call, but this week’s CPI report will determine whether that view holds. A cooler inflation print would likely lock in a September cut, inviting aggressive buying in silver and clearing the path toward the 14-month high at $39.53. A hotter reading could force the Fed to pause, lift the dollar, and send silver back toward deeper support.
Rate-Cut or Roadblock – Data Will Drive the Trade
The Fed is now in wait-and-see mode, and CPI is the decisive next test. If price pressures are easing, the policy door swings open for stimulus that would bolster silver’s appeal. If inflation proves sticky, rate-cut hopes could unwind quickly, souring sentiment.