Scotiabank strategist believes his ‘Top 30 Dividend Payers’ list of stocks will outperform

Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

Scotiabank strategist Jean-Michel Gauthier retains faith in Canadian dividend stocks,

“We started out 2025 recommending Canadian dividend strategies to investors on account of its positive exposure to growth and inflation surprises (i.e. Canadian dividend strategies outperform when growth/inflation are higher than expected). Moreover, a much higher potential for BoC rate cuts would also increase the cash to dividend yield gap, favoring dividend plays. Finally, the start of the trade wars added an emphasis on more defensive plays. For now, our SQoRE Canada Top 30 Dividend Payers has lagged the TSX Composite by about 110 basis points year-to-date, with most of the underperformance coming in July as quant ‘junk’ surged. Nevertheless, we believe a balanced selection of Canadian dividend payers (i.e. names focused on high dividend and buybacks, high growth, security, defensiveness, and quality) could still come out ahead in 2025: 1.Rate cuts should keep increasing the dividend yield attractiveness 2. While we are now unlikely to get positive growth surprises, we believe the North American economy has avoided the worst predictions and should match expectations at the very least. 3.Positive inflation surprises (inflation higher than expected) are holding up, especially in the US 4. Unless we get another Tech-led equity melt-up, steady growers/payers should come back to the forefront.

The stocks in the quantitatively driven Top 30 Dividend Payers list are Quebecor,, Sun Life Financial, Bank Of Nova Scotia, Canadian Tire, Suncor Energy, Open Text, Endeavour Mining PLC, Great-West Lifeco, Atco, iA Financial Corp, Cenovus Energy, Tourmaline Oil, Canadian Natural Resources, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Imperial Oil, CCL Industries, Gildan Activewear, Premium Brands Holdings, Stella-Jones, CIBC, Canadian National Railway, Saputo, Empire, Magna, Parkland, Metro, Fortis, Canadian Utilities, Finning and Hydro One.

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BMO chief strategist Brian Belski has updated his North American Income Guided Portfolio,

“Our North American Dividend Income Guided Portfolio was up 1.6 per cent in August, underperforming its blended dividend aristocrats benchmark by 28bps. 23 of our 30 names posted positive returns in August. Brookfield Asset Management, and Microsoft were top performers. These gains were offset by weakness from United Health, CN Rail and Lockheed Martin. Performance: August = down 0.3 per cent; year-to-date = up 2.3 per cent Changes = N/A”

The stocks are Telus Corporation, Verizon Communications Inc., Canadian Tire Corporation Limited Class A ,Restaurant Brands International Inc., Altria Group Inc., Enbridge Inc., Suncor Energy Inc., Bank of America Corp, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase 8 Co., Morgan Stanley, National Bank of Canada, Power Corporation of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Gilead Sciences Inc., UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, Canadian National Railway Company, General Dynamics Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Waste Management Inc., Apple Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., Microsoft Corp., Eastman Chemical Co., LyondellBasell Industries NV, Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation, and Emera Inc.

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Also from BMO, chief economist Doug Porter assesses the passing of the August 1 deadline for a trade deal with the U.S.,

“While the inability of Canada to reach a deal with the U.S. and avert the back-up in its ‘fentanyl’ rate to 35 per cent is a disappointment, the Canadian dollar took it in stride. First, the probability of no deal by August 1 had been well-telegraphed, and accounted for some of the loonie’s net loss this week. Second, the reality is that the 35-per-cent rate affects only a small share of Canada’s exports, and bumps up the effective average tariff rate by less than a percentage point (to perhaps 7 per cent). Our concern is that the stalemate does not reflect well on the prospects for a renegotiation of the USMCA over the next year. And, it’s rather clear that the threat of a 35-per-cent fallback tariff rate will loom over the proceedings, potentially acting as a cudgel. The Bank of Canada is well prepared for all eventualities, as this week’s rate decision and Monetary Policy Report came with three scenarios, including one with an escalation in tariffs. But even in that darker outlook, the Bank only looks for GDP to pull back an additional 1.25 per cent—serious for sure, but far from disastrous”

“How the (Trade) War Was Won” – BMO Economics

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Bluesky post of the day:

Diversion: “Why Your Gut Hasn’t Been the Same Since COVID” – SciTechDaily