On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures settled at ₹99,109 per 10 grams last week. Despite the pullback, investor demand remained firm, supported by deepening geopolitical tensions and currency volatility.
Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-commodity research, Kotak Securities, said, “Earlier today, gold briefly surged to $3,413.80/oz but has since pulled back, as investors await Iran’s response following U.S. participation in the weekend airstrikes on the Islamic Republic.”
“Gold is trading at about $3,375 (about ₹97,000) as investors keep a careful eye on the worsening Middle East conflict after the U.S. became involved in Israeli strikes on Iran. The Israel-Iran conflict has given new impetus to a surge that has raised gold prices by about 30% this year,” said Dr Renisha Chainani, Head-research, Augmont.
Gold fell almost 1% on Monday after beginning the week under bearish pressure. Despite last weekend’s missile strike exchange between Iran and Israel, safe-haven flows did not control financial market activity. “Due to global selloffs sparked by the growing Middle East war, investors also sold the precious metal to offset losses elsewhere,” said Chainani.
The U.S. Federal Reserve also maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance and held interest rates unchanged last week, cautioning that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs may exacerbate inflation and make the outlook for the economy more complex. Trump, however, restated his demands that the Fed lower interest rates by 2.5 percentage points.
The confirmation of a significant discovery in Argentina—one of the biggest copper, gold, and silver deposits in three decades—that is believed to contain 13.2 million tons of copper and more than 80 million ounces of gold and silver combined, put additional pressure on sentiment regarding the supply front.
“Following a symmetrical triangle breakout last week, gold prices are consolidating at high levels. Bullish momentum should continue till gold prices are trading above $3,300 (~₹96,300). This week, prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $3,320 (~₹97,000) and $3,420 (~₹100,000); a breakout or a breakdown will provide a 2-3% rise or fall,” said Chainani.
This week, some Federal Reserve officials are due to address Congress. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify for two days, during which time the possible effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the attack on Iran are anticipated to be discussed.
Caution also prevails ahead of key economic events, including the release of U.S. GDP data and core PCE inflation figures, all of which could offer fresh clues on monetary policy direction amid mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve.
“While most Fed officials have maintained a wait-and-see approach, signalling that the next rate cut may not occur before September, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has taken a more dovish stance, suggesting the Fed should consider easing rates at its next meeting, as he believes any inflation stemming from tariffs would be short-lived,” said Chainwala.