A cryptocurrency-based prediction platform is letting users place bets on whether five men who escaped from a New Orleans jail last week will be back in custody by Friday.
The site, Polymarket, is offering odds on the remaining fugitives who broke out of the Orleans Justice Center on May 16. Ten men escaped through a hole behind a toilet. As of Wednesday morning, five had been caught.
Escape included convicted killer
Among the escapees was Derrick Groves, convicted of two counts of second-degree murder in 2024. The others were being held on serious charges such as murder, armed robbery, and assault but had not yet been convicted.
The Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Office has warned the public not to approach the escapees, describing them as “armed and dangerous.”
Where the odds stand
As of Wednesday morning, Polymarket was offering the following odds on recapture by Friday:
- Jermaine Donald: 32%
- Derrick Groves: 43%
- Antoine Massey: 25%
- Leo Tate: 51%
- Lenton Vanburen: 29%
A sixth fugitive, Corey Boyd, had also been listed on the site until he was captured on Tuesday.
Polymarket operates by letting users buy and sell shares on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. Prices fluctuate based on demand, meaning participants are essentially betting against each other rather than the platform itself.
Bets top $1,300 on one inmate
According to the market, shares in Leo Tate’s recapture were trading for 65 cents, suggesting confidence in his return. The most money—about $1,386—was wagered on Vanburen. Only $399 had been bet on Groves.
Shares cost between $0 and $1, with winners receiving $1 per correct share after the market closes.
Jail employee arrested
On Tuesday, the Orleans Parish Sheriff’s Office arrested Sterling Williams, a 33-year-old jail employee, in connection with the breakout. Three other staff members have been suspended during the ongoing investigation.
Sheriff Susan Hutson previously stated she suspected the escape was “an inside job.”
Public reaction and next steps
Polymarket drew attention on social media for promoting the event with the phrase “PRISONER PARLAYS?” The post received nearly one million views on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Louisiana State Police continue working with local and federal partners to find the remaining escapees.
“We have every intention to continue pushing forward with our law enforcement partners until each of the fugitives is back in custody,” said agency spokesperson Katharine Stegall.
What happens next
The odds—and efforts—will continue evolving as authorities intensify the manhunt. While rare, large-scale prison escapes raise major questions about internal security, staff oversight, and system vulnerabilities.
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