There’s no denying that new global tariffs have turned the crypto market upside down in 2025. Just take a look at the top 50 cryptocurrencies as ranked by market cap; only a small handful of them are still up year to date.
One of those is Bitcoin (BTC 2.83%), which has proved surprisingly resilient. It’s now up 12% over the past 30 days and 1% for the year. It is, quite simply, the best cryptocurrency to buy during the current tariff battle, and here’s why.
Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset
There’s a simple reason Bitcoin has managed to eke out a 1% gain for the year: Investors are increasingly viewing it as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Historically, it has been uncorrelated with any major asset class. In short, it can zig when other assets zag. So, even if the entire U.S. stock market is collapsing due to tariffs, the crypto still has the potential to buck the trend. That makes it very valuable as a potential hedge.
Moreover, the digital coin has proved, time and time again, to be resilient against economic and geopolitical shocks. Last September, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) published a 10-page report on the unique diversification properties of Bitcoin.
It included an entire section on how well it has held up during times of crisis. BlackRock looked at six specific shocks to the global economic system that occurred between 2020 and 2024 and found that it actually outperformed gold in five of those six cases.
That’s interesting, because gold has historically been the one safe-haven asset that investors need to hold during any period of crisis. That’s why gold has soared past the $3,000 mark this year, and why some analysts think that it could even hit $4,000 by early 2026. If you are fearful about the future, you buy gold.
So, if you buy into the notion that Bitcoin is “digital gold,” then it could begin to narrow the performance gap with the precious metal over the course of the next eight months. That could set it up nicely for a nice mini-rally in the second half of 2025, even if global trade is falling off a container ship.
Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency?
On the surface, Bitcoin has very little to do with global trade, tariffs, imports, or exports. There’s only a very limited amount of trade that’s actually settled in that crypto.
Any Bitcoin-related trade typically involves nations that are being sanctioned by the United States, or that are outside the traditional system of global trade.
Image source: Getty Images.
But hedge fund managers, big institutional investors, and Wall Street executives are starting to talk seriously about the digital coin as a potential reserve currency. In their view, investors around the world are starting to lose faith in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy. If this trend accelerates, nations around the world might start to look for an alternative reserve currency.
For more than a decade, the idea of Bitcoin ultimately replacing the U.S. dollar has been a pet theory of crypto enthusiasts. As they see it, the token is superior to any fiat currency. It is digital, global, non-sovereign, and disinflationary.
Until this year, though, few people could have envisioned a day when investors wouldn’t want to invest in U.S. assets, hold U.S. dollars, or buy U.S. Treasury debt. But unfortunately, that’s where we could be headed, if this current tariff situation doesn’t get sorted out fast.
Bitcoin would be a likely beneficiary of any de-dollarization trend. Even if Bitcoin does not become the “official” reserve currency of the world, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where sovereign governments and central banks around the world start to buy more Bitcoin. You know — just in case. And that type of new buying would surely push the price higher.
How high can Bitcoin go in 2025?
It’s been fascinating to watch just how quickly investor perceptions have changed over the past few months. In their view, Bitcoin has transformed from being a highly volatile risk-on asset to a relatively safe risk-off asset.
As a result, some investors are starting to ratchet up their price forecasts once again. Right now, online prediction markets are suggesting that Bitcoin has a 49% chance of hitting $125,000 in 2025.
Of course, $125,000 is significantly below bullish forecasts from January, when many people expected it to double in price from the $100,000 level. But given all the turmoil and uncertainty over tariffs this year, I would be very comfortable with a gain of 25% for the year.