This year, numerous disasters have occurred worldwide due to sudden temperature fluctuations. In Türkiye, unusually warm temperatures, exceeding seasonal norms from February to April, caused plants to bloom prematurely. Then, the subsequent sharp drop in temperatures negatively impacted 16 types of agricultural products across 34 provinces. Following these events, the General Directorate of Meteorology released updated drought maps, highlighting the widespread risk of drought across the country. The increasing frequency and intensity of such meteorological disasters have drawn greater attention to the growing impact of climate change.
Climate change stands out as one of the most serious global problems of our time. Although it is commonly referred to as warming, climate change encompasses both the warming and cooling of temperatures over extended periods. Natural events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves, cold waves and droughts, make the environmental, financial and social impacts of climate change increasingly visible on global, regional and national scales.
According to the “State of Global Climate 2024” report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in March 2025, 2024 was recorded as the hottest year ever measured. The last decade was also the hottest on record. The report emphasized that average global temperatures in 2024 were 1.55 degrees Celsius (2.79 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than those in the preindustrial revolution period, revealing that the temperature increase had exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius – the main target of the Paris Climate Agreement – for the first time.
Extreme weather events
One of the most common indicators of climate change is undoubtedly extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, fires, heat waves and cold waves. These events are increasing in number, frequency and severity every year due to the impacts of climate change. As clearly stated in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Türkiye, located in the Mediterranean basin, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change, is increasingly exposed to disasters triggered by climate change.
According to the records of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), while there were between 20 and 150 extreme weather events annually in the 1990-2000 period, this number increased to between 150 and 550 in the 2000-2010 period, 300 to 980 in the 2010-2020 period and exceeded a thousand annually after 2020, reaching 1,257 in 2024. One-third of these events were caused by extreme and sudden precipitation, as well as floods resulting from this precipitation.
Risk in agricultural production
Temperature changes and the accompanying shifts in the water cycle directly impact many areas, including health, energy, transportation, food and agriculture. Among these, the agricultural sector is one of the most impacted. At the beginning of 2025, agricultural frost cases triggered by sudden temperature changes in February, March and April affected a vast area in Türkiye. The extreme cold that followed temperatures well above seasonal norms – considered to be a false spring – harmed agricultural production.
Although agricultural frost is a concern, the real danger for Türkiye is drought, which affects a broader geographical area for a more extended period. According to MGM assessments, the drought maps for the period April 2023 to March 2025 indicate that the Thrace region, as well as the western, southern and inland parts of the country, are experiencing moderate, severe and extreme drought. In the last 12-month drought maps, more than half of the country’s land faces the threat of drought, and in the previous three-month (winter period) maps, intense drought prevails in all areas except the Black Sea region.
In addition to the threats of frost and drought, wasteful use of water and the lack of adoption of water-resistant cropping patterns undoubtedly have a negative impact on agricultural production and the security of water and food supplies.
Decline in yield
According to the report titled “The Impact of Disasters and Crises on Agriculture and Food Security 2023,” prepared by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), agricultural losses caused by natural disasters between 2000 and 2021 accounted for approximately 5% of the annual global agricultural GDP. In particular, it has been noted that drought, triggered by climate change, accounts for 65% of farming losses, while floods, storms and forest fires also cause significant damage. Additionally, temperature changes reduce crop productivity, thus creating an inflationary effect on food prices. In Türkiye, one of the most important impacts of climate change expected in the agricultural sector is a decrease in yields.
According to data from Türkiye’s climate change adaptation strategy and action plan, prepared for the 2024-2030 period, the damages caused by climate change-induced disasters in Türkiye amount to 1.2% of the country’s GDP. Therefore, it has been emphasized that to protect our country from the impacts of climate change-induced disasters, it is crucial to increase our resilience and design and implement adaptation actions at all levels.
According to the plan, it is also estimated that by 2080, changes in temperature and precipitation regimes will impact crop production yields by 8% in crops such as wheat, barley, oats and rye; 12% in sunflower; 12% in legumes; 14% in corn; 5% in cotton; and 16% in sugar beet. In regional studies, such as those in Thrace, it is estimated that changes in temperature and precipitation regimes could result in a 76% decrease in wheat yields and a 66% decrease in sunflower yields.
Similar trends have been observed globally in terms of yield declines, as shown by numerous studies published on platforms such as the American National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Nature and FAO. According to these studies, two-thirds of the calories consumed worldwide come from just four crops – wheat, soy, rice and maize – and for every 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature, yields of these crops are projected to decrease by up to 25%. Additionally, a study published by NASA predicts that yield losses of up to 17% in wheat and 24% in corn, which are among the primary food sources, will occur globally by 2030 as a result of temperature increases.
In the following piece, I will continue my discussion by examining what Türkiye has done so far to address the agricultural crisis and exploring further actions that can be taken.
