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Before roiling global markets with his tariff plan last week, US President Donald Trump took a few moments to tout a decline in the price of eggs.
There was a very deep irony to this. Inflation in egg prices and other household staples probably contributed to his win. And for eggs specifically, the recent drop in prices was fueled by a yuge jump in imports.
In other words, America’s protectionist President imposed a set of baffling tariffs, targeted to reduce bilateral trade deficits, while trumpeting a price drop driven by two key trading partners.
The plan to import eggs was no secret during the peak of the price spike and shortages, when even Waffle House had to tap out. And to be fair, agricultural commodities aren’t what drive the biggest trade imbalances with the US, because they are often outstripped by electronics, other big-ticket items, or geographically-concentrated industries like textiles.
But it’s still an illustrative reminder of why trade can be useful. And we can now see it in more detail, thanks to data published late last week by the Census Bureau and USDA.
Two countries stepped into the birdflu breach in February: Turkey and Mexico. They exported more than four times as many eggs that month as they did the prior year, according to the USDA.
From the USDA’s latest weekly egg-market report, published Friday (with our emphasis):
Overall imports of shell and egg products exploded in February as the domestic market sought relief from reduced production resulting from persistent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the first two months of the year.
Overall volume was up 551 percent; 404 percent over a year ago. The overall value of imports was similarly higher, up 328 percent for the month and 450 percent for the year. Imports of table shell eggs increased 478 percent with Turkey and Mexico contributing at a 60/40 split. Imports of liquid egg products were down 13 percent for the month but 43 percent over year ago levels. Imports of liquid whole egg were down 15 percent as shipments from Vietnam slowed. While imports of liquid yolk declined 33 percent as trade with Canada slowed. Only liquid albumen posted an increase, up 30 percent and all from Canada.
There’s a real lesson here, we think. Plenty of ink has been spilled already about how trade provides commodities that a country doesn’t have (eg diamonds or bananas).
This shows that trade also can protect from supply shocks in commodities and goods a country does have. Like, say, an outbreak of disease. One can argue about how much the price pinch was exacerbated by issues besides bird flu — like monopoly power and factory farming — but $8 for a dozen eggs is inarguably rough maths!
On the bright side, the US has only imposed a 10-per-cent tariff on Turkey because it had a relatively small trade deficit with the country (around 9 per cent) in 2024.
As for Mexico, it isn’t entirely clear whether egg imports from Mexico are all considered compliant with the USMCA. If they are, they would dodge all tariffs under the new regime. But Mexico only provided a small portion of the eggs that the US was importing.
Next outbreak, the US will simply have to ask skincare brand The Ordinary to start egg pop-up sales all over the US.
Another bit of irony: that company is based in Canada, which imported nearly $97mn of eggs from the US in January and February.